Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.009841 0.011118 0.012521 0.014180 0.016095 0.018239 0.020831
2024-12-15 0.007751 0.009451 0.011488 0.014125 0.017473 0.021612 0.027167
2024-12-22 0.006369 0.008151 0.010408 0.013507 0.017698 0.023239 0.031231
2024-12-29 0.005594 0.007445 0.009898 0.013435 0.018480 0.025537 0.036372
2025-01-05 0.005243 0.007227 0.009967 0.014095 0.020280 0.029405 0.044267
2025-01-12 0.004619 0.006546 0.009294 0.013584 0.020274 0.030578 0.048205
2025-01-19 0.004145 0.006023 0.008779 0.013225 0.020412 0.031938 0.052582
2025-01-26 0.003838 0.005711 0.008538 0.013241 0.021119 0.034260 0.058892
2025-02-02 0.003705 0.005646 0.008661 0.013839 0.022836 0.038468 0.069208
2025-02-09 0.003437 0.005344 0.008375 0.013721 0.023300 0.040536 0.075853
2025-02-16 0.003248 0.005148 0.008240 0.013838 0.024181 0.043451 0.084620
2025-02-23 0.003021 0.004870 0.007941 0.013631 0.024434 0.045199 0.091264
2025-03-02 0.002889 0.004748 0.007909 0.013926 0.025715 0.049222 0.103744
2025-03-09 0.002714 0.004541 0.007712 0.013898 0.026377 0.052118 0.114371
2025-03-16 0.002473 0.004196 0.007237 0.013290 0.025789 0.052299 0.118654
2025-03-23 0.002331 0.004017 0.007050 0.013219 0.026301 0.054924 0.129428
2025-03-30 0.002296 0.004029 0.007216 0.013867 0.028419 0.061468 0.151642
2025-04-06 0.002121 0.003767 0.006840 0.013366 0.027952 0.061934 0.157733
2025-04-13 0.001979 0.003558 0.006548 0.013013 0.027775 0.063072 0.165953
2025-04-20 0.001890 0.003443 0.006435 0.013029 0.028450 0.066413 0.181327
2025-04-27 0.001868 0.003457 0.006577 0.013616 0.030556 0.073742 0.210604
2025-05-04 0.001776 0.003326 0.006413 0.013500 0.030932 0.076576 0.226446
2025-05-11 0.001712 0.003247 0.006352 0.013615 0.031898 0.081179 0.249358